The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections by Kyle Kondik

Author:Kyle Kondik [Kondik, Kyle]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Legislative Branch, American Government, Campaigns & Elections, United States, Political Science, Political Process, State & Local, History, General
ISBN: 9780821447345
Google: Jp1REAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 55707494
Publisher: Ohio University Press
Published: 2021-10-26T00:00:00+00:00

Figure 3.3. Crossover House districts, 1964–2020

Source: Data compiled and provided by Jonathan Rodden

After Democrats elected 31 members from Trump-won districts in 2018, they elected only seven in 2020. A combination of factors led to this sharp decline.

First of all, Van Drew’s party switch reduced the group’s ranks by one even before the election, and Van Drew won a competitive reelection as Trump once again carried his South Jersey district. In the actual election, almost half (14) of the 30 remaining Trump-won districts held by Democrats flipped to Biden. The Democrats who held these districts all won reelection, although several had close calls, such as Reps. Lauren Underwood (D, IL-14), Conor Lamb (D, PA-17), and Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7).

Of the remaining 16, Republicans defeated 8 incumbents. That included long-serving representative Collin Peterson (D, MN-7), the Agriculture Committee chairman who could not survive another 30-point Trump victory in his rural western Minnesota district, especially as Republicans rallied to a challenger, former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach (R), who was more credible and better funded than many of Peterson’s past opponents. Overall, Minnesota was illustrative of the partisan sorting of House results. In 2016, four of its eight districts had voted for different parties for House and for president. In 2020, all eight districts voted the same way: Republicans picked up three outstate districts that voted twice for Trump over the course of 2018 and 2020, while Democrats in 2018 flipped two more suburban-focused seats that voted against Trump either once (MN-2, in 2020) or twice (MN-3) and then held these districts in 2020.

Republicans also knocked off Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D, IA-1), Xochitl Torres Small (D, NM-2), Anthony Brindisi (D, NY-22), Max Rose (D, NY-11), Kendra Horn (D, OK-5), Joe Cunningham (D, SC-1), and Ben McAdams (D, UT-4), all first-time 2018 winners who couldn’t generate enough crossover support to win again as Trump carried their districts once more. Republicans also flipped the one vulnerable open Democratic seat, the Trump-won IA-2, though only by an incredibly tiny six-vote margin. A few more-seasoned Trump-district members, like Reps. Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17), Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8), and Ron Kind (D, WI-3), held on, but by narrower margins than what they were used to. Bustos served as chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but she only won by four points.

So, to a significant extent, the Democratic Trump 2016 seats sorted themselves out—the lion’s share either flipped to Biden and retained their Democratic House incumbents or stuck with Trump and elected Republican House members. Of the remaining Trump-district Democrats, several backed Trump by only a point or less, as was the case in districts retained by first-term representatives Cindy Axne (D, IA-3), Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-8), and Andy Kim (D, NJ-3). Rep. Jared Golden (D, ME-2) won relatively easily even as Trump once again carried the single electoral vote in Maine’s Second District for the second straight time. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that award some of their electoral votes by congressional district as opposed to the other states, which are winner takes all at the statewide level.

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